Publications
Lin, X., Hui, E. C., Cong, Z., and Shen, J. · Journal of Development Economics, 2026
This study explores whether strengthening communal land rights can address coordination
failures caused by fragmented land tenure. Based on China's ambitious land reform that
permits rural collectives to directly sell or rent their construction land to enterprises,
we discover that collective land transfer rights boost rural entrepreneurship by 25%. This
positive firm growth is entirely concentrated in regions where collective coordination is
simpler to achieve (i.e., less rugged areas and regions with denser clan networks). We
identify two specific pathways behind the entrepreneurial growth: lower land use costs for
firms and increased land wealth for local residents. The reform also facilitates expansion
into non-farm wage employment, mainly due to more active participation in the labor market
rather than via a decline in the agricultural sector. Our findings emphasize the importance
of communal rights and collective negotiation in reducing coordination costs and offer new
insights into promoting rural development in developing countries.
Yuan, C., Zhu, T., Ding, Y., Cong, Z.*, and Li, Z. · Cities, 2026
State-led administrative consolidations, such as China's City-County Consolidation (CCT),
are a critical instrument for addressing uncoordinated regional development. Yet, whether
they achieve or exacerbate spatial inequity remains highly contested. This study provides
new evidence to resolve this debate. Employing a multi-period difference-in-differences
approach with granular township-level nighttime light data, we conduct a multi-scalar
assessment of CCT's impact on economic inequality. Our findings reveal that CCT reduces
economic inequality at both the prefectural and inter-county levels, while its effects at
the intra-county level are more complex. This outcome is driven by key mechanisms,
including fiscal consolidation, market integration, industrial upgrading, and enhanced
transportation. However, the success of CCT is not unconditional: its
inequality-reducing effects are significantly stronger in regions with less pressure for
short-term economic growth and higher levels of initial development. Our findings
demonstrate that the integration benefits of CCT can outweigh polarization risks, but
only at specific scales and within particular institutional contexts, thus providing
crucial policy lessons for state-led spatial governance.
Tang, J., Shao, B., Zang, X., and Cong, Z.* · Ageing & Society, 2026
Rapid population ageing and the digitalization of daily life have created a dual
challenge: ensuring cognitive health while preventing digital exclusion among older
adults. While the ‘use it or lose it’ hypothesis suggests that environmental stimulation
protects against cognitive decline, international evidence regarding the causal impact of
internet use on cognition remains mixed, particularly in developing contexts where digital
adoption is uneven. This study addresses this gap by investigating the causal impact of
internet use on cognitive abilities among middle-aged and older adults in China, while
also exploring the heterogeneity of effects and potential underlying mechanisms.
Utilizing three waves of panel data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal
Study (CHARLS) with 40,438 observations, we employ instrumental variable (IV) estimation
to address endogeneity and generalized random forests (GRFs) to estimate heterogeneous
treatment effects. The results demonstrate that internet use significantly enhances
cognitive abilities, with the IV estimates confirming a strong causal link. Notably, the
GRF analysis reveals that these cognitive benefits are larger for rural residents,
individuals with lower education levels and those who adopt the internet in middle age.
Mechanism analyses indicate that these benefits are primarily driven by increased social
interaction and reduced stress levels rather than changes in health behaviours. We
conclude that digital inclusion serves as a critical non-medical intervention for healthy
ageing, particularly in developing countries where it can help bridge cognitive
disparities caused by socio-economic inequalities.
Cong, Z., Cao, X., and Yuan, C. · Population, Space and Place, 2025
Resource-exhausted cities grapple with an amalgam of challenges such as economic decline,
substantial unemployment, and pressing environmental crises, posing a global conundrum.
Population settlement is a cardinal driver of economic growth; hence, strategies to retain
inhabitants are quintessential for the transformative growth of these cities. Leveraging a
panel data set spanning 2003–2019 of Chinese county-level jurisdictions, this study employs
the staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model to discern the implications and
underlying mechanisms of the resource-exhausted cities' supporting policies (RECSP) on
employment rates and population inflows. The findings indicate that the RECSP improves
regional employment rates and population inflows, with enhanced environmental quality,
refinement of public services, manufacturing shifts, and industrial upgrades being the
primary mechanisms. Notably, the effects of RECSP on population settlement are more
pronounced in regions with centralized heating and in the Northeast. Furthermore, mining
cities witnessed a more substantial surge in employment rate, while forestry-based cities
registered a marked population inflow. The results underscore the imperativeness of
amplifying support to resource-exhausted cities, advocating for urban industrial
metamorphosis, enticing population inflows, enhancing employment rates, and thereby
catalyzing diversified and sustainable economic evolution.
Publications in Chinese
医保支付改革、道德风险与医疗控费
Fu, Y., Ni, C., Cong, Z.*, and Wang, Z. · Management World 《管理世界》, 2026
国际合作交流对中国高校教师科研产出的影响——来自经济学科海外访学的证据
Liu, Q., Zheng, S., and Cong, Z. · China Economic Quarterly 《经济学（季刊）》, 2025
社区适老化改造对老年人健康的影响
Ni, C., Shao, B., Cong, Z.*, and Wang, Z. · Chinese Journal of Population Science 《中国人口科学》, 2024
* Corresponding author
Working Papers
Information Intervention and Climate Adaptation: The Role of Weather Forecasts in Reducing Medical Costs in China
with Qingfeng Liu and Chenxu Ni
Presented at the 1039th Workshop on Ecology, Environment, and Climate Change Economics, School of Economics, Peking University
Heating and Health: The Warmth–Pollution Trade-off, Its Composition, and the Role of Technology
with Qingfeng Liu, Chenxu Ni, Tao Tao, and Siqi Zheng
Presented at the 50th Camphor Economics Beijing Seminar
Miles to Illness: The Effects of Job-Housing Distance and Commuting-Related Pollution on Health
with Xin Lin, Chenxu Ni, and Zhuoran Zhang
Adjusting to the Storm: Production Dynamics around Typhoons
with Chen Xi and Yu Zhang
Who Becomes a Doctor, and Who Trusts One? Adolescent Exposure to Community Health Workers and the Making of the Medical Profession
with Yuxuan Li, Chenxu Ni, and Xiaosen Zang
Beneath the Greenhouse Dome: Extreme Heat and Health Costs in China
with Jin Hu, Chen You, Heer Wang, Chenxu Ni, and Kaiya Wu
Equal contribution
Extreme Rainfall, Forecast Bias, and Medical Expenses
with Jin Hu, Minmin Huang, Chenxu Ni, and Chen You
The Changing Nature of Income Risk: Persistence, Insurance and Poverty in Rural China, 1986–2015
with Chenxu Ni and Chen Xi
Disease Prevention, Births, and Population Growth: Evidence from China’s County Disease-Control Stations
with Chenxu Ni and Chen Xi
Depopulation or Concentration? Conservation Zoning and Settlement Change in China’s Key Ecological Function Zones
with Chenxu Ni and Tao Tao
Feeding the Cities, Schooling the Countryside: Wholesale Markets and Rural Human Capital in China
with Xin Lin and Chenxu Ni
Climate Change Is Shifting Crop Losses beyond the Reach of Early Warnings
with Chenxu Ni and Chen Xi
What Do Claims-Based Health Gradients Measure? Detection, Life Stage, and Pre-Labor-Market Skills
with Chenxu Ni, Xinzheng Shi, and Chen Xi
Accurate Teacher Forecasts Underestimate the Educational Advantage of Children from Educated Families
with Tao Tao
Honest Empirical Bayes: Shrinkage and Inference for Many Biased Estimates
with Chenxu Ni
Hotter Summers Abroad Draw Cooling Goods Mainly from China
with
Occupational Heat Illness and Dangerous Heat Often Fall below China’s Legal Heat Trigger
with
Invasive Crop Pests Trigger Invention Mainly Where Research Capacity Exists
with
Counted but Not Kept: Applicant Heterogeneity in the Renewal of China’s Green Inventions
with Chenxu Ni and Yichuan Zhang